NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	8.9 [189]		MVP	Malcolm Brogdon (MIL): +56.4%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	6.5 [157]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -19.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malcolm Brogdon	0.56	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.27,0.56	0.09	0.47	-0.00	15	58%	0.56	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.03	13	73%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.10	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1	0.05	0.06	0.02	15	58%	0.15	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	3	75%	0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Tony Snell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	8	50%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Sterling Brown	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	14	31%	-0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.19	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.09	0.01	9	48%	0.04	5	-0.23	3	67%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.37	0.37	0.16	0.20	-0.01	12	79%	0.37	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	12	65%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.3,0.3,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	18	51%	0.26	1	-0.18	3	100%	0.03
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.07	0.01	21	52%	0.06	1	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	8	33%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	-0.10	0.01	7	57%	-0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	25.5	15.2	23.4	1.8	37.4	129.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +22.7%

MIL +18.6%

MIL +0.9%

MIL +2.1%

MIL +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	15.7	14.3	109.5	104.2	109.3
season	13.5	14.3		112.4	111.5
opponent	14.5	14.3		105.9	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.8	14.1	13.7	15.1	14.7
TOR	13.7	17.8	16.3	14.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	74	75	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-4	13	14.4	15.5	-1.10	15.6	15.9	-0.38
Malcolm Brogdon	66	67	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.26	9	-4	13	13.8	16.7	-2.87	15.4	16.4	-1.00
Sterling Brown	44	44	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.05	12	-7	19	13.5	15.7	-2.17	17.1	14.4	2.64
Thon Maker	17	16	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	-6	17	11.5	15.3	-3.82	19.9	14.8	5.08
Eric Bledsoe	64	63	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.34	-4	9	-13	15.4	13.2	2.23	16.0	15.0	0.94
Khris Middleton	65	65	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.30	-4	9	-13	15.5	12.9	2.53	15.6	15.7	-0.02
Tony Snell	40	39	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	2	1	14.2	15.0	-0.76	14.9	16.2	-1.32
Brook Lopez	63	63	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.28	-5	10	-15	15.4	13.2	2.23	15.6	15.8	-0.19
Ersan Ilyasova	33	33	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.16	-2	7	-9	15.3	14.3	0.93	13.9	16.6	-2.63
Pat Connaughton	9	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	9	-13	18.2	14.3	3.93	12.4	16.0	-3.64

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	73	73	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.32	10	-15	25	15.2	17.1	-1.87	15.8	11.0	4.77
Kyle Lowry	66	66	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.27	7	-12	19	15.2	16.7	-1.44	15.2	13.4	1.85
Danny Green	66	67	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.32	7	-12	19	14.9	17.3	-2.44	15.5	12.6	2.86
Serge Ibaka	69	68	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.27	4	-9	13	15.2	16.9	-1.70	15.2	13.4	1.81
Fred VanVleet	52	54	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-8	11	15.6	15.7	-0.17	14.7	14.6	0.18
Pascal Siakam	54	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	0	-5	14.7	17.0	-2.28	14.8	14.5	0.30
Jonas Valanciunas	26	27	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	4	-13	16.9	15.2	1.70	13.4	15.2	-1.81
Delon Wright	21	21	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.01	-14	9	-23	18.2	14.9	3.26	11.9	15.5	-3.60
CJ Miles	30	29	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.05	-14	9	-23	17.0	15.0	1.97	12.2	15.7	-3.54
OG Anunoby	26	26	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.01	-16	11	-27	16.3	15.4	0.85	12.4	15.5	-3.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.3,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.08,0.15,0.27,0.38,0.63,0.77,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 109, LAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.32,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.36,0.55,0.58,0	90.0%
LAL 95, OKC 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.54,0.68,0.58,0	89.9%
MEM 100, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.33,0.28,0	89.8%