inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 115 Excitement4.5 [944] MVPRodney McGruder (MIA): +17.2%
Atlanta Hawks 86 Comeback2.2 [927] LVPTyler Johnson (MIA): -13.2%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Rodney McGruder0.170,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.170.130.04-0.016100%0.1710.00250%-0.01
Kelly Olynyk0.170,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.170.140.020.001279%0.191-0.0200%0.00
Josh Richardson0.080,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.080.140.020.081270%0.0800.003100%0.01
Justise Winslow0.050,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.050.020.02-0.011651%0.072-0.023100%0.01
Wayne Ellington0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.040.060.010.03961%0.0400.0000%0.00
Udonis Haslem0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.020.00-0.02125%0.0000.00250%0.00
Derrick Walton Jr.0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.020.00-0.0210%0.0000.0000%0.00
Jordan Mickey0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.030.000.03467%0.0010.001100%0.00
Luke Babbitt-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.04-0.01-0.02625%-0.0300.0000%0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.030.05-0.010.07571%0.001-0.03475%0.00
Hassan Whiteside-0.030,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.02-0.010.01633%-0.0300.0000%0.00
Bam Adebayo-0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.100.00-0.06629%-0.023-0.022100%0.01
Tyler Johnson-0.130,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13-0.09-0.030.011030%-0.072-0.0700%0.00

Atlanta Hawks
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Taurean Prince0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.10.100.12-0.010.011469%0.131-0.021100%0.00
Josh Magette0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.060.060.030.01-0.02462%0.0600.0000%0.00
Damion Lee0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.020.00-0.00-0.021356%0.063-0.0410%-0.01
Antonius Cleveland0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.020.000.020.00283%0.052-0.032100%0.00
Tyler Dorsey0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.010.01-0.00-0.001348%0.031-0.02580%0.02
Jeremy Evans0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.00-0.000.00-0.001100%0.0010.0000%0.00
Tyler Cavanaugh0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.00-0.020.00-0.02736%-0.0000.0000%0.00
Andrew White III0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.00-0.080.00-0.0840%-0.0010.0000%0.00
Miles Plumlee0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.02-0.03-0.01-0.01225%-0.0200.00450%-0.00
Dewayne Dedmon0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.04-0.03-0.01-0.00650%0.022-0.0600%0.00
Isaiah Taylor0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09-0.09-0.09-0.01-0.01812%-0.0900.0000%0.00
John Collins0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11-0.11-0.08-0.000.03941%-0.043-0.07450%-0.03
Mike Muscala0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11-0.11-0.13-0.01-0.0370%-0.091-0.0200%0.00
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game28.62.323.415.423.62.725.2121.3
league avg25.12.328.615.027.22.332.6134.4
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
MIA +27.6%
MIA +3.0%
MIA +9.1%
MIA +9.6%
MIA +0.6%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIAATLNBAMIAATLNBA
this game14.014.314.7112.785.1107.5
season15.114.6105.4104.2
opponent14.414.6109.8105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
MIA13.513.916.112.914.0
ATL13.215.413.415.414.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Rodney McGruder41420.57-0.070.65-0.042181315.113.31.8314.913.90.91
Justise Winslow60600.440.060.38-0.272451913.015.5-2.4314.014.8-0.80
Kelly Olynyk50490.400.100.31-0.362632312.515.6-3.1214.713.90.79
Bam Adebayo45440.400.100.30-0.362632312.115.6-3.4714.514.20.39
Tyler Johnson46470.180.32-0.150.06425-2115.712.72.9213.914.7-0.77
Wayne Ellington53510.160.34-0.17-0.191217-513.215.0-1.8714.014.6-0.58
Luke Babbitt51500.140.36-0.23-0.01524-1915.812.33.4714.014.6-0.57
Josh Richardson58570.100.40-0.29-0.311415-114.014.1-0.0315.313.12.23
Hassan Whiteside41420.100.40-0.300.07128-2716.512.44.0414.414.30.09
Derrick Jones Jr.25240.000.50-0.50-0.06227-2514.014.1-0.1214.214.4-0.21
Udonis Haslem12120.000.50-0.50-0.12425-2113.314.1-0.8113.214.5-1.22
Derrick Walton Jr.12120.000.50-0.50-0.12425-2113.314.1-0.8113.214.5-1.22
Jordan Mickey16150.000.50-0.50-0.06227-2513.314.2-0.8713.514.5-0.93

Atlanta Hawks
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Miles Plumlee48490.10-0.600.700.33-8-211314.014.6-0.6613.015.1-2.10
Jeremy Evans12120.00-0.500.500.12-4-252113.214.5-1.2213.314.1-0.81
Tyler Cavanaugh2021-0.01-0.490.490.26-9-201115.014.10.9012.914.4-1.50
Andrew White III2021-0.01-0.490.490.26-9-201115.014.10.9012.914.4-1.50
Antonius Cleveland2628-0.07-0.430.35-0.02-2-272513.014.8-1.8412.614.6-1.99
Damion Lee4446-0.09-0.410.320.08-6-231715.413.51.9215.712.73.00
Josh Magette4140-0.12-0.380.250.08-7-221513.914.6-0.7113.714.3-0.62
Mike Muscala4544-0.17-0.330.160.09-9-201113.515.0-1.4713.314.6-1.29
Taurean Prince5050-0.38-0.12-0.26-0.03-12-17514.014.6-0.6115.412.82.57
Isaiah Taylor3839-0.41-0.09-0.320.03-15-14-115.113.81.2915.413.22.12
Tyler Dorsey5858-0.43-0.07-0.360.45-301-3113.914.9-1.0512.316.3-4.03
John Collins5756-0.43-0.07-0.370.09-18-11-715.013.51.4614.913.01.91
Dewayne Dedmon4646-0.47-0.03-0.45-0.00-16-13-314.714.00.6815.313.02.37


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
GameSimilarity Score
PHX 89, DAL 750.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,094.4%
BOS 96, OKC 830.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,094.3%
GSW 116, NYK 950.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,094.3%