NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	9.6 [97]		MVP	Kyle Kuzma (LAL): +58.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	108		Comeback	5.3 [129]		LVP	Brandon Ingram (LAL): -32.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.35,0.35	0.19	0.16	-0.01	24	65%	0.46	1	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1	0.05	0.06	0.01	7	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	11	57%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03
Al Horford	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.01	11	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.01	0.15	-0.16	-0.01	13	73%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.05
Jarell Eddie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	11	41%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	6	29%	0.00	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.28,0.28,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.58	0.58	0.23	0.34	-0.01	16	76%	0.58	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.06	0.01	17	54%	0.12	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.04
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	5	69%	0.19	2	-0.13	6	50%	-0.05
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	12	52%	0.12	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	10	52%	0.06	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Tyler Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	4	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.01	8	40%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.16
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.15	-0.18	0.01	11	27%	-0.20	3	-0.12	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.8	27.1	15.7	27.8	2.6	39.5	141.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -0.2%

BOS -8.8%

LAL +49.7%

LAL +0.8%

LAL +8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	LAL	NBA	BOS	LAL	NBA
this game	14.1	15.3	14.7	109.2	110.2	107.5
season	15.1	13.7		106.4	105.7
opponent	14.8	14.7		107.2	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.3	13.5	13.8	13.8	14.1
LAL	15.3	17.2	13.8	15.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyrie Irving	78	78	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.30	16	-17	33	13.8	15.1	-1.25	15.5	14.4	1.05
Marcus Morris	57	56	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.10	4	-5	9	13.9	14.4	-0.50	14.6	16.2	-1.54
Jarell Eddie	8	7	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	3	-7	15.7	14.0	1.79	13.7	15.4	-1.69
Daniel Theis	33	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	4	-9	15.5	13.4	2.04	15.5	15.2	0.29
Jaylen Brown	54	54	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.19	-1	0	-1	13.7	14.6	-0.89	15.0	15.6	-0.55
Aron Baynes	21	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	6	-13	15.5	13.7	1.81	14.6	15.5	-0.84
Al Horford	62	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.35	2	-3	5	13.9	14.4	-0.50	15.5	14.8	0.66
Terry Rozier	46	47	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	2	-5	14.5	13.8	0.71	15.5	15.1	0.35
Jayson Tatum	60	61	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.50	0	-1	1	13.9	14.4	-0.52	16.2	13.8	2.37
Marcus Smart	71	69	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.54	-7	6	-13	13.7	15.1	-1.44	14.9	16.1	-1.21

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Hart	48	48	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.58	7	-6	13	15.3	15.2	0.09	13.6	14.6	-0.93
Kyle Kuzma	55	55	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.49	2	-1	3	15.1	15.5	-0.32	14.2	14.0	0.18
Jordan Clarkson	68	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	2	-3	15.9	13.9	2.05	13.9	14.7	-0.83
Brandon Ingram	69	68	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	3	-5	15.2	15.6	-0.43	13.7	14.9	-1.15
Julius Randle	54	53	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.36	-3	4	-7	15.5	15.1	0.39	13.4	14.9	-1.54
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	48	48	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.23	-1	2	-3	16.0	14.6	1.40	13.8	14.4	-0.61
Brook Lopez	32	31	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	-3	7	13.9	15.9	-2.00	14.5	13.9	0.61
Tyler Ennis	30	29	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	-1	3	13.9	15.9	-2.05	14.7	13.9	0.83
Larry Nance Jr.	50	52	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	1	-1	15.7	14.9	0.85	15.0	13.1	1.83
Alex Caruso	36	37	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.31	-3	4	-7	15.1	15.4	-0.32	15.1	13.5	1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.25,0.16,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.36,0.23,0.41,0.47,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 91, NJN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.54,0.78,0.89,0.89,0.97,0.98,1	91.4%
MEM 110, LAC 113	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.61,0.62,0.72,0.9,0.96,1	91.2%
MIA 86, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.86,0.72,0.91,0.87,1	90.9%