NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	116		Excitement	5.0 [826]		MVP	Jae Crowder (BOS): +14.3%
Atlanta Hawks	123		Comeback	1.1 [662]		LVP	Amir Johnson (BOS): -5.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jae Crowder	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.16	0.01	0.03	14	75%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Marcus Smart	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	11	75%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.15	-0.02	0.09	21	64%	0.09	3	-0.05	13	85%	0.03
Gerald Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Mickey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	8	22%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.03	19	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	14	62%	0.11	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Taurean Prince	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	13	67%	0.13	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	15	62%	0.14	3	-0.05	12	75%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	-0.04	8	60%	0.07	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	17	62%	0.11	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	56%	0.05	3	-0.05	8	50%	-0.02
DeAndre' Bembry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	39%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.3	34.5	16.7	29.2	3.5	51.3	165.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +32.9%

BOS -2.0%

ATL +22.3%

BOS -4.0%

ATL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	13.4	14.0	14.8	110.5	117.1	107.7
season	14.7	14.4		110.1	104.2
opponent	14.9	14.9		104.6	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.9	15.7	13.4	9.5	13.4
ATL	14.7	13.7	14.3	13.6	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylen Brown	37	39	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.13	5	-12	17	12.8	13.7	-0.91	13.2	14.5	-1.27
Jordan Mickey	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.06	-2	-5	3	2.0	13.5	-11.51	4.0	14.1	-10.13
Gerald Green	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-10	13	10.5	13.7	-3.21	17.2	13.7	3.51
Jonas Jerebko	13	13	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-4	1	15.6	13.1	2.53	10.8	14.5	-3.72
Jae Crowder	79	77	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.46	12	-19	31	13.2	13.9	-0.70	14.8	12.0	2.72
Al Horford	54	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-8	9	13.8	12.9	0.89	15.3	12.6	2.65
Marcus Smart	75	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-7	7	12.2	16.5	-4.29	13.2	16.3	-3.13
Kelly Olynyk	54	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	-1	-5	13.1	13.7	-0.52	13.1	15.1	-2.05
Amir Johnson	48	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	4	-15	16.1	11.1	4.94	14.7	13.5	1.16
Avery Bradley	78	76	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.17	-14	7	-21	13.4	13.4	-0.01	14.2	13.6	0.61
Isaiah Thomas	76	77	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.06	-20	13	-33	13.4	13.4	0.03	14.1	14.0	0.09

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taurean Prince	88	88	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.28	8	-1	9	14.2	13.1	1.09	13.2	14.4	-1.21
Paul Millsap	74	71	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.19	8	-1	9	12.8	17.0	-4.26	12.2	16.0	-3.85
Tim Hardaway Jr.	86	86	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	7	-7	14.6	11.5	3.06	13.7	12.1	1.65
Ersan Ilyasova	52	54	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	3	1	14.9	13.2	1.73	14.3	12.4	1.88
Jose Calderon	10	11	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.07	12	-5	17	13.9	14.0	-0.14	12.7	13.5	-0.75
Kent Bazemore	46	45	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.08	7	0	7	12.8	15.0	-2.26	13.6	13.3	0.27
Mike Muscala	41	43	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	0	7	13.5	14.3	-0.81	12.8	13.8	-1.03
Dennis Schroder	72	73	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.26	-3	10	-13	14.4	13.2	1.23	13.0	14.4	-1.40
Dwight Howard	43	42	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.21	-5	12	-17	15.6	12.9	2.67	15.0	12.4	2.59
Mike Dunleavy	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	7	-7	12.6	14.2	-1.63	15.3	13.2	2.18
DeAndre' Bembry	1	0	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	10	-13	0.0	14.2	-14.16	0.0	13.4	-13.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.73,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 80, WAS 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
CLE 63, HOU 81	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
UTA 104, OKC 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	95.5%