NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	99		Excitement	6.6 [523]		MVP	Danny Green (SAS): +17.9%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	1.4 [1059]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -13.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kent Bazemore	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.02	6	88%	0.12	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.05	0.04	0.02	14	57%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Taurean Prince	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	5	35%	0.00	1	-0.03	10	30%	-0.08
Paul Millsap	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	13	50%	0.05	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	7	53%	0.01	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	-0.00	22	48%	-0.04	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.10	-0.01	9	78%	0.24	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.10	-0.00	3	83%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	8	87%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.03	6	67%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	13	52%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.02	10	54%	0.06	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	2	100%	0.09	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.01	24	53%	0.06	5	-0.14	10	80%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.8	33.9	17.0	28.2	3.4	39.7	149.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +57.4%

ATL -1.5%

SAS +7.8%

ATL -15.7%

SAS +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAS	NBA	ATL	SAS	NBA
this game	13.4	14.6	14.8	96.1	103.9	107.7
season	14.4	15.4		104.2	110.1
opponent	14.8	14.9		103.7	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.3	14.2	12.4	12.6	13.4
SAS	13.3	13.5	17.1	14.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.07	-3	-5	2	13.7	13.3	0.40	14.7	14.6	0.11
Taurean Prince	22	21	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-6	4	13.6	13.3	0.34	13.3	14.9	-1.64
Mike Muscala	7	6	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-5	2	16.4	13.1	3.28	12.8	14.7	-1.87
Dwight Howard	66	63	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-13	18	13.7	12.8	0.87	14.9	14.1	0.85
Tim Hardaway Jr.	62	63	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-10	12	12.7	14.4	-1.70	14.6	14.6	-0.09
Thabo Sefolosha	60	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.06	-10	2	-12	13.9	12.7	1.19	14.5	14.7	-0.15
Ersan Ilyasova	48	50	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-4	0	12.7	13.9	-1.24	14.1	15.1	-1.00
Dennis Schroder	81	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	-3	-2	13.3	13.7	-0.40	14.6	14.7	-0.11
Paul Millsap	84	86	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.22	-12	4	-16	13.2	13.9	-0.64	14.9	13.1	1.77
Kent Bazemore	63	66	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	0	-8	13.5	13.2	0.24	15.0	13.9	1.01

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Lee	64	64	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.27	15	-7	22	14.4	14.9	-0.45	13.7	12.8	0.88
Danny Green	64	61	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	2	4	14.3	15.1	-0.78	13.4	13.3	0.10
Kawhi Leonard	85	84	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.17	10	-2	12	14.6	14.7	-0.16	13.1	14.7	-1.61
Pau Gasol	57	58	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	-2	12	15.6	13.3	2.25	13.1	13.7	-0.53
Patty Mills	78	79	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.26	0	8	-8	14.5	14.8	-0.22	13.5	13.0	0.54
Bryn Forbes	25	24	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	0	8	14.8	14.5	0.22	13.0	13.5	-0.54
Manu Ginobili	50	51	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	5	-2	14.2	14.9	-0.72	13.0	13.8	-0.81
Dewayne Dedmon	45	45	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.11	-2	10	-12	14.7	14.5	0.25	13.8	13.0	0.77
Kyle Anderson	11	11	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.06	-2	10	-12	9.9	15.2	-5.24	15.5	13.1	2.33
Davis Bertans	29	30	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	7	-6	15.2	14.4	0.86	13.9	13.2	0.75
Joel Anthony	5	5	-0.10	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	12	-16	15.2	14.6	0.64	7.6	13.7	-6.06
Jonathon Simmons	2	3	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	13	-18	23.5	14.4	9.08	15.3	13.3	2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.82,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.53,0.64,0.75,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 82, IND 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.99,1	93.6%
WAS 65, NJN 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.81,0.88,0.85,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.85,1,1,1	93.2%
ORL 88, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.72,0.83,0.91,0.91,0.76,0.85,0.94,1,1	92.9%