NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Excitement	7.6 [339]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +26.2%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	3.2 [610]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -16.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gorgui Dieng	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.01	0.01	11	83%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shabazz Muhammad	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	14	51%	0.11	4	-0.11	7	100%	0.04
Cole Aldrich	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Karl-Anthony Towns	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.04	0.00	17	44%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kris Dunn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach LaVine	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	0.00	17	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Nemanja Bjelica	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.01,-0.13	0.10	-0.20	0.03	20	57%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.22

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.26	0.26	0.09	0.18	0.01	9	82%	0.33	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	5	70%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	17	47%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	12	68%	0.15	2	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-0.19	0.00	12	55%	-0.12	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	25.4	15.4	23.6	2.6	32.3	124.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +55.6%

DEN +12.1%

MIN -0.9%

MIN -20.2%

DEN +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	17.3	13.8	14.8	112.0	112.9	107.7
season	15.3	14.4		109.3	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.7		111.2	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	17.9	19.7	17.0	15.1	17.3
DEN	14.9	12.5	13.7	14.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Aldrich	7	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.04	-2	0	-2	18.4	17.2	1.19	16.3	13.6	2.66
Kris Dunn	27	26	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-1	0	19.4	16.5	2.95	13.9	13.8	0.13
Karl-Anthony Towns	67	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.42	6	-8	14	17.3	17.4	-0.10	13.8	13.9	-0.07
Shabazz Muhammad	38	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	2	-6	17.8	17.0	0.83	13.9	13.8	0.07
Nemanja Bjelica	35	34	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	8	-18	18.5	16.6	1.96	13.5	14.0	-0.52
Andrew Wiggins	69	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-3	4	16.5	19.7	-3.22	13.8	13.8	0.01
Zach LaVine	77	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-1	0	17.8	14.9	2.94	13.8	13.9	-0.13
Gorgui Dieng	75	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-4	6	16.7	20.2	-3.50	13.8	14.1	-0.36
Ricky Rubio	65	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-1	0	16.5	19.4	-2.95	13.8	13.9	-0.13

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	58	57	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.42	1	1	0	13.5	14.3	-0.78	16.5	18.7	-2.24
Nikola Jokic	68	67	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.50	-3	5	-8	14.1	13.0	1.19	16.8	18.8	-2.08
Emmanuel Mudiay	53	53	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	-2	6	13.4	14.4	-1.00	17.0	17.7	-0.72
Wilson Chandler	70	71	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.27	2	0	2	14.0	13.3	0.64	17.8	15.8	2.03
Jamal Murray	23	24	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.02	9	-7	16	12.7	14.2	-1.56	19.3	16.6	2.72
Danilo Gallinari	69	68	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.44	-7	9	-16	14.4	12.1	2.30	16.6	19.3	-2.72
Kenneth Faried	31	31	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.16	1	1	0	13.2	14.1	-0.95	16.7	17.6	-0.88
Jameer Nelson	40	39	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	4	-6	14.4	13.4	1.00	17.7	17.0	0.72
Jusuf Nurkic	17	15	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	-2	6	13.1	14.0	-0.94	18.9	17.0	1.84
Will Barton	36	35	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.03	1	1	0	13.9	13.8	0.14	18.7	16.5	2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.67,0.77,0.92,0.88,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 101, UTA 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.52,0.66,0.63,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	91.6%
LAL 74, MIN 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	91.5%
NOP 116, ATL 128	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.69,0.77,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.92,0.98,1,1,1	91.2%