NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	5.1 [797]		MVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): +11.0%
Atlanta Hawks	103		Comeback	1.0 [1189]		LVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): -21.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.18	0.00	0.07	16	67%	0.11	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Willie Reed	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	52%	0.05	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.00	0.07	15	61%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	17	55%	0.07	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Josh McRoberts	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	5	25%	-0.08	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.06	0.02	12	33%	-0.09	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.16	-0.01	0.06	11	82%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Dennis Schroder	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.03	15	57%	0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	12	70%	0.16	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	11	45%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	9	47%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	9	39%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Delaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	0.03	8	50%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	30.2	15.6	26.4	1.7	33.2	131.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +33.4%

MIA -4.9%

ATL +11.1%

ATL +10.1%

ATL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.3	14.5	14.8	102.2	109.6	107.7
season	15.4	14.4		106.7	104.2
opponent	14.9	14.5		104.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.1	18.1	17.0	13.2	16.3
ATL	14.2	12.6	14.3	16.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Reed	23	25	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.18	12	-20	32	13.9	17.1	-3.19	17.1	13.6	3.57
Derrick Williams	39	40	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.31	14	-22	36	14.3	17.7	-3.41	16.2	13.2	3.05
Rodney McGruder	60	62	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-13	18	16.8	15.4	1.42	14.0	15.5	-1.47
Tyler Johnson	69	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.35	4	-12	16	15.4	19.0	-3.62	14.7	13.8	0.95
Josh McRoberts	59	58	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.02	-19	11	-30	17.9	13.6	4.29	13.2	16.5	-3.29
Wayne Ellington	77	78	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.25	-14	6	-20	16.8	13.7	3.09	15.0	12.0	3.01
Hassan Whiteside	70	69	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.08	-20	12	-32	17.1	13.9	3.19	13.6	17.1	-3.57
Goran Dragic	68	68	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.02	-22	14	-36	16.0	17.2	-1.21	14.2	15.4	-1.22

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	67	67	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.09	16	-8	24	14.2	15.3	-1.12	16.8	15.0	1.82
Paul Millsap	64	62	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.06	21	-13	34	14.2	15.0	-0.78	17.0	14.8	2.21
Kyle Korver	67	66	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.32	8	0	8	14.7	14.1	0.55	15.7	17.8	-2.07
Thabo Sefolosha	58	57	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	-4	16	13.9	15.5	-1.67	16.8	15.5	1.32
Dennis Schroder	61	60	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	3	2	14.0	15.5	-1.56	16.8	15.5	1.28
Malcolm Delaney	33	33	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	5	-2	15.5	14.0	1.56	15.5	16.8	-1.28
Mike Muscala	45	47	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.35	-10	18	-28	14.8	14.2	0.58	15.4	17.2	-1.75
Taurean Prince	25	24	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	12	-16	15.4	14.2	1.17	15.9	16.4	-0.53
Tim Hardaway Jr.	41	42	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	12	-16	14.6	14.5	0.11	16.4	16.2	0.21
Kris Humphries	9	7	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.10	-7	15	-22	17.4	14.2	3.26	12.9	16.6	-3.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.85,0.69,0.81,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 84, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.96,0.95,0.95,1,1	94.1%
ATL 95, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.89,0.91,1,1	94.0%
UTA 80, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1	93.9%