NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	110		Excitement	5.6 [716]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +12.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	103		Comeback	1.1 [637]		LVP	Damian Lillard (POR): -11.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.05	0.00	19	70%	0.30	7	-0.18	5	60%	0.01
Cory Joseph	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.08	-0.04	0.08	-0.04	11	50%	0.11	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	25	49%	0.05	1	-0.00	9	67%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	10	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	52%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Norman Powell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	9	71%	0.14	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.02	6	77%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	11	41%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.06
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	18	55%	0.06	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.03	-0.04	0.10	20	54%	-0.03	3	-0.09	10	90%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	1.8	26.2	15.5	25.2	2.0	38.3	135.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +29.8%

TOR +1.5%

TOR +8.1%

TOR +11.5%

POR -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	POR	NBA	TOR	POR	NBA
this game	16.7	13.5	14.9	113.4	110.8	105.1
season	16.1	15.0		107.2	107.1
opponent	14.6	14.8		106.7	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.6	17.5	17.1	15.9	16.7
POR	14.6	13.1	14.9	11.8	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Patterson	57	56	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.14	19	-12	31	15.8	18.1	-2.33	13.7	13.3	0.41
Cory Joseph	54	51	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.27	6	1	5	16.2	17.3	-1.11	13.2	14.0	-0.80
Terrence Ross	60	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-4	15	16.4	17.2	-0.74	13.8	13.1	0.67
Bismack Biyombo	44	44	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	4	-1	16.9	16.6	0.24	12.4	14.6	-2.19
DeMar DeRozan	72	68	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	3	1	16.2	18.4	-2.25	13.6	13.4	0.21
Kyle Lowry	80	77	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	9	-11	17.2	14.4	2.81	13.2	14.9	-1.72
Jonas Valanciunas	47	45	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.10	0	7	-7	17.1	16.4	0.69	14.2	12.9	1.37
Norman Powell	26	24	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	5	-3	18.2	16.2	1.94	14.5	13.2	1.27
Luis Scola	45	41	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.12	-8	15	-23	17.6	15.9	1.70	13.8	13.3	0.43

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	34	37	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-11	15	15.1	12.6	2.57	18.5	15.6	2.92
Maurice Harkless	29	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-5	3	14.7	13.0	1.71	17.8	16.2	1.58
Al-Farouq Aminu	60	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-11	15	13.8	13.0	0.75	17.0	16.1	0.90
CJ McCollum	65	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-8	9	13.0	14.8	-1.82	17.1	15.9	1.25
Damian Lillard	69	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-3	-1	13.8	12.7	1.14	16.2	18.2	-1.96
Gerald Henderson	47	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	2	-11	13.4	13.7	-0.31	17.0	16.5	0.45
Meyers Leonard	51	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-3	-1	12.4	14.9	-2.53	15.9	17.6	-1.70
Allen Crabbe	66	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	0	-7	13.3	14.0	-0.73	16.3	17.9	-1.63
Ed Davis	44	45	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.02	-18	11	-29	13.3	13.7	-0.46	15.7	17.7	-1.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.3,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.16,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 106, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.21,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	95.2%
HOU 109, SEA 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%
DET 87, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%