NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	101		Excitement	9.4 [110]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +40.7%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	5.9 [120]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -33.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.06	-0.01	3	100%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Aron Baynes	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15	0.06	0.09	0.00	7	81%	0.19	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Stanley Johnson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.08	-0.02	10	60%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04	0.13	-0.09	0.01	10	83%	0.15	2	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrun Hilliard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	10	41%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	5	29%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	16	47%	-0.08	4	-0.09	2	50%	0.04
Reggie Jackson	-0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,0.07,-0.33	-0.12	-0.22	-0.01	15	34%	-0.24	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.41	0.41	0.16	0.24	-0.01	15	65%	0.42	1	-0.01	16	81%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.13	0.01	11	71%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sean Kilpatrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	59%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	10	32%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	15	50%	0.08	4	-0.20	6	83%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.4	27.5	15.5	24.4	2.4	37.6	136.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.8%

DEN +26.1%

DET -32.0%

DEN +18.2%

DEN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	15.3	14.9	106.3	110.6	105.1
season	15.0	14.9		104.9	104.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		107.8	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.3	13.6	16.9	17.4	15.2
DEN	13.9	16.4	14.4	16.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Johnson	41	41	0.42	-0.92	1.34	0.07	12	-15	27	14.0	16.1	-2.10	16.0	14.7	1.31
Brandon Jennings	37	35	0.39	-0.89	1.28	0.10	10	-13	23	13.3	16.3	-3.02	17.1	14.2	2.92
Darrun Hilliard	13	13	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.02	5	-8	13	14.3	15.3	-1.00	18.2	14.8	3.39
Andre Drummond	33	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-2	1	17.3	14.0	3.32	16.7	14.6	2.09
Anthony Tolliver	39	39	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-7	11	15.3	15.1	0.24	17.2	14.0	3.24
Aron Baynes	62	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-1	-1	14.0	17.3	-3.32	14.6	16.7	-2.09
Ersan Ilyasova	58	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	7	-17	14.9	15.6	-0.74	14.0	17.3	-3.28
Marcus Morris	63	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-4	5	16.2	13.2	2.94	15.3	15.4	-0.10
Reggie Jackson	58	59	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.51	-13	10	-23	16.3	13.3	3.02	14.2	17.1	-2.92
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	70	-1.15	0.65	-1.80	-0.54	-21	18	-39	15.3	14.8	0.50	14.4	18.1	-3.73

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Arthur	67	67	1.13	-0.63	1.76	0.31	28	-25	53	14.5	17.4	-2.89	16.1	13.0	3.13
Danilo Gallinari	75	76	1.10	-0.60	1.69	0.48	21	-18	39	14.8	17.4	-2.65	15.4	14.1	1.39
Gary Harris	62	64	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.53	14	-11	25	14.2	17.5	-3.32	16.1	13.2	2.93
Emmanuel Mudiay	69	68	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.42	16	-13	29	14.5	17.6	-3.07	15.7	13.7	1.99
Nikola Jokic	63	62	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.59	6	-3	9	14.8	16.4	-1.61	15.8	14.0	1.79
Joffrey Lauvergne	31	33	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.18	-3	6	-9	16.4	14.8	1.61	14.0	15.8	-1.79
Sean Kilpatrick	19	20	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.01	-12	15	-27	17.3	14.8	2.45	13.0	15.7	-2.75
Randy Foye	25	27	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	-0.01	-13	16	-29	17.6	14.5	3.07	13.7	15.7	-1.99
Mike Miller	21	20	-0.65	1.15	-1.79	-0.06	-20	23	-43	17.8	14.6	3.16	13.8	15.5	-1.67
Will Barton	38	38	-0.68	1.18	-1.87	-0.04	-22	25	-47	17.3	13.9	3.41	13.2	16.5	-3.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.66,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.69,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 93, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.15,0.16,0.3,0.19,0.26,0.39,0.27,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.53,0.58,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.55,0.43,0.42,1	89.0%
UTA 111, WAS 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.81,0.79,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.22,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.42,1	88.4%
DAL 88, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.3,0.36,0.48,0.65,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.7,0.57,0.53,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.37,0.68,0.74,1	88.1%