NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	8.2 [250]		MVP	Paul George (IND): +22.7%
Indiana Pacers	90		Comeback	3.9 [259]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -25.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justise Winslow	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.08	0.14	-0.00	10	62%	0.21	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.02	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.02,0.02	0.08	-0.06	-0.00	16	54%	0.02	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.04	0.00	4	100%	0.15	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	10	38%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.04
Tyler Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.05
Goran Dragic	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	11	50%	-0.02	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.26	-0.09	-0.17	-0.00	15	28%	-0.26	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul George	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.14	-0.01	27	58%	0.36	4	-0.14	8	75%	0.06
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.00	6	71%	0.14	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	58%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	8	33%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.08
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.12	0.00	10	50%	-0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	8	25%	-0.07	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.7	30.2	17.4	21.9	2.8	44.2	146.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +5.0%

IND +7.3%

IND +37.9%

MIA -0.8%

IND +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.1	15.2	14.9	94.6	97.8	105.1
season	15.5	14.6		104.5	103.2
opponent	14.9	15.1		101.6	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	18.2	17.3	15.0	16.1
IND	13.5	16.0	15.5	16.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	35	35	0.55	-1.05	1.60	-0.07	21	-24	45	16.3	15.9	0.47	16.7	14.4	2.36
Josh McRoberts	32	30	0.34	-0.84	1.19	-0.07	14	-17	31	16.4	15.8	0.59	16.1	14.9	1.21
Tyler Johnson	35	36	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-4	5	16.7	15.6	1.11	15.4	15.1	0.32
Chris Bosh	69	68	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.23	6	-9	15	15.7	17.1	-1.43	15.3	15.2	0.11
Justise Winslow	57	56	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.37	10	-13	23	16.2	15.7	0.50	15.8	14.4	1.32
Luol Deng	50	52	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.02	-14	11	-25	16.6	15.4	1.15	14.8	15.9	-1.11
Goran Dragic	60	61	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.57	-6	3	-9	15.6	17.0	-1.40	14.7	16.4	-1.76
Hassan Whiteside	64	63	-1.08	0.58	-1.65	-0.40	-23	20	-43	15.8	16.7	-0.95	15.1	15.6	-0.44
Dwyane Wade	58	59	-1.10	0.60	-1.70	-0.40	-24	21	-45	15.9	16.4	-0.52	14.5	16.6	-2.07

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul George	75	75	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.57	8	-5	13	14.8	17.4	-2.65	15.1	20.1	-4.91
Ian Mahinmi	49	50	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.48	10	-7	17	14.8	15.8	-1.06	16.5	15.5	0.93
Monta Ellis	72	72	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.53	7	-4	11	14.8	16.9	-2.17	15.1	19.6	-4.53
George Hill	76	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.25	12	-9	21	15.7	13.3	2.35	16.8	13.0	3.80
Jordan Hill	42	43	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.18	13	-10	23	16.9	13.8	3.09	16.3	15.8	0.47
Lavoy Allen	42	42	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.12	23	-20	43	14.6	15.8	-1.20	17.7	14.7	3.05
Glenn Robinson	28	29	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	1	1	15.6	15.1	0.51	17.2	15.5	1.68
Rodney Stuckey	20	20	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.05	-12	15	-27	14.6	15.4	-0.77	17.0	15.8	1.27
Myles Turner	25	24	-0.55	1.05	-1.61	0.09	-22	25	-47	16.2	14.9	1.36	14.6	16.6	-1.93
Chase Budinger	31	31	-0.73	1.23	-1.97	0.03	-26	29	-55	15.2	15.3	-0.09	14.9	16.7	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.78,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 89, CHH 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.32,0.41,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.84,0.77,0.58,1	90.6%
DAL 93, ORL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.45,0.84,1	90.4%
TOR 86, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.4,0.53,0.64,0.83,0.83,1	90.2%