NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	104		Excitement	9.2 [116]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +31.3%
Houston Rockets	103		Comeback	3.0 [510]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -38.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.31	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.31	0.14	0.16	-0.01	15	76%	0.42	3	-0.11	8	62%	-0.02
Patty Mills	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.13	0.00	4	117%	0.35	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01
Aron Baynes	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.11	0.00	6	81%	0.25	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1	0.00	0.09	-0.01	17	47%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Jeff Ayres	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	13	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	7	0%	-0.21	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.11	0.01	8	112%	0.34	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.00	6	61%	0.11	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Terrence Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	9	64%	0.12	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	53%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Joey Dorsey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	5	63%	0.10	4	-0.15	9	67%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.03,-0.09,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	9	45%	-0.01	3	-0.09	26	46%	-0.33
James Harden	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.34,-0.28,-0.38	-0.38	-0.14	-0.26	-0.02	19	36%	-0.23	4	-0.16	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	27.2	15.7	30.2	2.4	41.6	146.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +17.3%

SAS +18.9%

SAS +14.5%

SAS +7.0%

HOU -7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	16.4	12.2	15.1	104.0	101.0	104.2
season	15.4	14.3		106.9	105.6
opponent	14.9	14.9		103.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.5	16.2	15.0	16.0	16.4
HOU	12.8	13.3	14.4	8.9	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	47	46	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.39	14	-13	27	16.0	16.7	-0.64	11.8	12.5	-0.63
Tim Duncan	71	72	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.58	-3	4	-7	16.5	15.9	0.60	11.9	12.9	-1.00
Kawhi Leonard	80	83	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.52	-2	3	-5	16.4	16.1	0.33	12.1	12.8	-0.73
Danny Green	48	50	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.41	-5	6	-11	16.4	16.4	-0.01	12.8	11.6	1.15
Patty Mills	28	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	-4	9	12.9	17.7	-4.77	10.9	12.7	-1.88
Boris Diaw	58	57	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	-4	9	16.7	15.9	0.78	10.6	14.3	-3.71
Tony Parker	55	56	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.51	-12	13	-25	17.7	14.7	3.00	12.3	12.1	0.16
Cory Joseph	17	16	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.10	8	-7	15	17.6	16.1	1.55	14.4	11.8	2.66
Jeff Ayres	16	15	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.14	9	-8	17	18.6	15.9	2.70	13.5	12.0	1.57
Marco Belinelli	31	31	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	0	1	16.0	16.5	-0.57	12.6	12.0	0.60
Matt Bonner	13	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	0	1	13.9	16.7	-2.80	14.0	11.9	2.11
Aron Baynes	36	39	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.15	-16	17	-33	16.0	16.6	-0.56	13.5	11.4	2.17

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	52	49	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.15	-2	1	-3	10.2	14.3	-4.09	15.3	17.4	-2.03
Joey Dorsey	10	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	4	-9	16.7	11.7	4.99	16.7	16.3	0.34
Nick Johnson	9	10	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	7	-15	12.8	12.1	0.64	20.5	15.9	4.60
Corey Brewer	52	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.11	-3	2	-5	10.8	13.6	-2.79	16.2	16.6	-0.43
Jason Terry	62	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.57	12	-13	25	12.9	11.1	1.72	17.2	15.0	2.19
Pablo Prigioni	40	39	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.10	-13	12	-25	11.1	12.9	-1.72	15.0	17.2	-2.19
Dwight Howard	53	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.54	8	-9	17	13.6	10.6	3.01	16.6	16.1	0.51
Trevor Ariza	93	90	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.54	7	-8	15	12.1	12.8	-0.64	15.9	20.5	-4.60
Terrence Jones	60	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.49	1	-2	3	13.3	10.6	2.64	16.7	15.8	0.94
James Harden	79	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.47	-2	1	-3	12.1	12.7	-0.65	16.7	15.3	1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.4,0.26,0.45,0.21,0.1,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 97, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.3,0.22,0.3,0.38,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.03,0.09,0.09,0	92.2%
PHX 97, UTA 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.26,0.16,0.04,0,0	91.0%
MEM 97, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.62,0.52,0.64,0.69,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.46,0.4,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.27,0	90.7%