NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	8.7 [164]		MVP	Victor Oladipo (ORL): +32.1%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	7.4 [109]		LVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): -19.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Oladipo	0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.32	0.06	0.26	0.00	12	73%	0.43	5	-0.10	6	83%	-0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0.20	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.2,0.2	0.18	0.03	0.01	17	70%	0.20	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tobias Harris	0.09	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	14	64%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	-0.00	11	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	2	125%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	4	17%	-0.09	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.17	0.10	0.00	10	91%	0.35	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.04
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	1	62%	0.11	0	0.00	11	55%	-0.07
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	83%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	17	49%	0.02	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.05
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	0.00	-0.15	0.01	11	54%	-0.06	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.17,0.32,0.32,0.26,-0.16	-0.16	0.09	-0.25	0.00	14	64%	-0.07	3	-0.09	11	100%	0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	27.2	15.5	26.2	2.0	37.1	134.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +66.9%

MIA -11.8%

MIA -14.8%

MIA -1.8%

ORL +11.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	15.2	15.1	113.3	112.2	104.2
season	14.9	16.0		100.4	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.4	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.0	17.0	16.9	17.2	16.8
MIA	14.0	17.2	13.8	16.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	59	59	0.96	-0.46	1.43	0.76	7	-6	13	16.7	16.8	-0.13	14.1	17.4	-3.22
Evan Fournier	58	57	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.50	6	-5	11	16.8	16.7	0.01	16.3	13.4	2.92
Tobias Harris	68	67	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	-3	7	16.4	17.9	-1.47	15.1	15.7	-0.61
Dewayne Dedmon	25	28	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.17	6	-5	11	16.9	16.7	0.23	15.3	15.2	0.11
Nikola Vucevic	65	62	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.30	-5	6	-11	16.7	16.9	-0.23	15.2	15.3	-0.11
Victor Oladipo	70	69	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.37	-8	9	-17	16.6	17.2	-0.57	15.4	14.9	0.51
Ben Gordon	22	23	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	4	-7	17.9	16.4	1.47	15.7	15.1	0.61
Channing Frye	50	51	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.16	1	0	1	17.2	16.2	1.05	15.6	14.7	0.93
Kyle O'Quinn	33	34	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	4	-7	16.4	17.0	-0.57	14.5	15.7	-1.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	43	44	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.00	4	-5	9	14.5	15.9	-1.45	16.5	17.0	-0.50
Dwyane Wade	57	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.37	6	-7	13	15.1	15.5	-0.43	16.8	16.6	0.27
Hassan Whiteside	35	33	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	4	-9	15.5	15.1	0.35	16.7	16.8	-0.09
Chris Bosh	63	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.42	4	-5	9	14.8	16.3	-1.45	17.1	15.9	1.29
Mario Chalmers	61	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.00	-12	11	-23	14.5	16.9	-2.39	15.8	18.4	-2.61
Norris Cole	62	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.57	4	-5	9	16.1	13.2	2.90	17.5	15.0	2.56
Luol Deng	71	72	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.41	-3	2	-5	15.2	15.6	-0.42	16.6	17.4	-0.79
Danny Granger	58	58	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.53	-3	2	-5	16.3	13.4	2.85	16.8	16.7	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.76,0.8,0.72,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.53,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.71,0.55,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 104, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.69,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.57,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.41,0.35,0.46,0.47,0.72,0.57,0.72,0	90.1%
DET 105, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.43,0.58,0	90.1%
NYK 93, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.55,0.72,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.67,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.29,0.4,0.53,0.71,0.77,0.63,0	89.9%