NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	132		Excitement	13.5 [8]		MVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): +60.8%
Chicago Bulls	129		Comeback	36.3 [31]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -15.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.61	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.61	0.04	0.55	-0.02	35	51%	0.71	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.26
Devin Harris	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.19	0.12	-0.01	10	100%	0.41	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	8	72%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.03,0.12	0.08	0.06	0.02	16	60%	0.30	2	-0.18	8	87%	0.05
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.00	0.10	-0.00	22	46%	0.19	1	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Brandan Wright	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.19,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.03	0.17	0.00	25	53%	0.33	3	-0.13	5	100%	0.05
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	15	62%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.07	-0.01	3	80%	0.13	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	4	80%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	8	62%	0.12	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.11	0.02	21	45%	0.10	1	-0.02	9	56%	0.01
Tony Snell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	0.01	7	57%	0.14	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,0.22,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.16	-0.16	-0.17	-0.02	-0.03	20	41%	0.14	7	-0.30	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	28.7	2.8	32.2	15.5	22.3	2.7	38.0	1.6	11.2	2.4	13.1	170.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +31.2%

DAL +23.8%

CHI -16.8%

DAL +4.8%

DAL +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHI	NBA	DAL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.7	14.9	15.1	111.9	110.3	104.2
season	14.6	15.5		107.6	105.4
opponent	15.2	15.0		102.5	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	14.2	13.0	14.9	18.0	13.6	14.7
CHI	15.9	15.2	14.5	13.3	15.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	82	85	1.18	-0.68	1.87	0.66	18	-15	33	15.2	13.5	1.74	15.6	13.0	2.62
Jose Juan Barea	23	24	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.01	14	-11	25	16.4	14.3	2.09	16.6	14.5	2.16
Devin Harris	72	70	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.31	1	2	-1	15.2	14.0	1.17	14.3	15.8	-1.47
Richard Jefferson	35	33	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	-6	15	14.0	15.0	-1.01	16.1	14.5	1.61
Tyson Chandler	80	80	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.31	-2	5	-7	14.6	14.9	-0.23	15.3	14.0	1.29
Monta Ellis	95	94	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.46	-9	12	-21	14.3	16.4	-2.09	14.4	17.0	-2.61
Jameer Nelson	47	48	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	1	1	14.2	15.0	-0.79	15.5	14.5	1.01
Chandler Parsons	95	93	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.42	-9	12	-21	14.2	16.7	-2.46	14.4	16.8	-2.42
Jae Crowder	1	0	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	3	-3	0.0	14.8	-14.84	0.0	14.9	-14.91
Al-Farouq Aminu	15	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	8	-13	14.5	14.7	-0.28	11.4	15.4	-4.03
Brandan Wright	45	44	-0.50	1.00	-1.51	-0.39	-4	7	-11	15.6	14.2	1.47	14.5	15.1	-0.58

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	76	77	0.25	-0.75	1.01	-0.04	10	-13	23	14.9	14.9	0.04	15.5	13.2	2.29
Nikola Mirotic	49	50	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.12	-3	0	-3	15.0	14.8	0.23	15.8	13.9	1.92
Aaron Brooks	26	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.17	-8	5	-13	16.1	14.6	1.55	16.8	14.1	2.69
Jimmy Butler	86	86	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-3	3	14.6	15.8	-1.23	14.1	16.4	-2.37
Tony Snell	14	12	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	2	-7	12.5	15.2	-2.73	13.6	14.8	-1.26
Joakim Noah	72	72	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.20	2	-5	7	15.3	14.2	1.11	15.2	13.9	1.34
Kirk Hinrich	52	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-5	7	13.8	15.8	-1.98	15.4	14.1	1.30
Derrick Rose	77	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-2	1	14.9	14.9	0.01	13.9	16.2	-2.37
Pau Gasol	104	104	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	3	-9	14.9	14.8	0.07	14.0	20.3	-6.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.35,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.13,0.22,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.46,0.45,0.79,0.85,0.96,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.33,0.27,0.46,0.39,0.21,0.17,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 99, PHI 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.22,0.15,0.26,0.16,0.21,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.6,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.68,0.99,1	86.4%
MIL 104, DEN 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.28,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.27,0.39,0.63,0.67,0.92,1	86.0%
MIL 96, TOR 101	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.52,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.49,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.17,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.38,0.54,0.78,0.96,1	85.9%