NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	113		Excitement	10.9 [51]		MVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): +36.4%
Atlanta Hawks	118		Comeback	3.0 [255]		LVP	Amir Johnson (TOR): -24.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Novak	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.08	0.02	5	90%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.15	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.02	7	76%	0.15	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.14	0.03	0.12	0.01	16	56%	0.28	2	-0.14	4	100%	0.03
John Salmons	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.10	-0.00	2	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.25,0.13,0.07,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	0.07	-0.14	0.00	18	58%	0.25	3	-0.33	14	93%	0.17
Greivis Vasquez	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	14	36%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.00	-0.10	0.01	9	61%	-0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.25	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.25	-0.01	-0.23	0.01	8	61%	0.01	3	-0.25	2	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.24,0.32,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.35,0.36	0.36	0.18	0.19	0.01	18	72%	0.59	3	-0.23	11	100%	0.14
Kyle Korver	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.13	0.07	14	52%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Pero Antic	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.01	6	53%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	6	42%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	47%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	6	43%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	0.00	-0.22	-0.01	16	49%	-0.10	2	-0.11	7	86%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.6	2.4	28.5	15.6	26.1	1.7	40.0	1.8	20.3	162.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -13.7%

ATL +5.9%

ATL +8.8%

ATL +46.8%

ATL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	14.7	15.6	15.1	106.6	113.5	105.2
season	15.9	14.8		107.2	103.8
opponent	15.3	15.1		104.7	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	13.4	14.6	16.5	14.9	13.7	14.7
ATL	15.4	15.4	16.2	15.8	14.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	37	40	0.26	-0.76	1.03	-0.06	11	-16	27	15.4	14.3	1.03	16.7	15.0	1.72
Nando De Colo	10	10	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-5	5	16.3	14.5	1.79	19.5	15.2	4.30
Tyler Hansbrough	25	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.24	-9	4	-13	15.2	14.5	0.68	15.0	15.8	-0.77
Charles Hayes	34	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-1	-3	14.4	14.8	-0.39	14.6	16.1	-1.57
DeMar DeRozan	88	87	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	-0.33	2	-7	9	15.3	11.7	3.63	16.0	13.5	2.56
Amir Johnson	66	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.45	6	-11	17	14.6	14.8	-0.19	16.0	15.0	0.97
Kyle Lowry	84	83	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.41	4	-9	13	13.9	17.5	-3.62	15.2	17.4	-2.21
Terrence Ross	79	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.44	3	-8	11	14.7	14.6	0.07	15.3	16.5	-1.23
Greivis Vasquez	34	33	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	8	-21	15.3	14.4	0.86	16.4	15.3	1.14
Steve Novak	43	40	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.04	-12	7	-19	14.5	14.8	-0.36	14.7	16.2	-1.53
John Salmons	30	28	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.14	-13	8	-21	13.2	15.2	-2.02	14.9	15.9	-0.94

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarre Carroll	73	76	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.67	3	2	1	15.2	16.6	-1.47	14.7	14.7	0.02
Paul Millsap	75	78	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.47	7	-2	9	15.3	16.5	-1.20	14.7	14.5	0.20
Kyle Korver	70	71	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.35	5	0	5	15.7	15.4	0.30	14.8	14.4	0.46
Pero Antic	55	59	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.43	2	3	-1	15.7	15.5	0.20	15.1	14.1	0.95
Jeff Teague	79	82	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	4	-3	15.2	17.0	-1.88	14.7	14.5	0.18
Dennis Schroder	25	24	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	1	3	17.0	15.2	1.88	14.5	14.7	-0.18
Cartier Martin	31	31	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.08	3	2	1	16.8	15.1	1.65	14.5	14.7	-0.18
Mike Muscala	7	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	4	-3	18.9	15.4	3.48	15.0	14.7	0.35
Elton Brand	36	34	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	6	-7	15.6	15.6	-0.09	14.8	14.6	0.13
Mike Scott	32	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.13	0	5	-5	16.6	15.2	1.46	14.7	14.7	0.08
Shelvin Mack	37	37	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.21	0	5	-5	14.4	16.3	-1.84	13.5	15.3	-1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.69,0.54,0.68,0.85,0.5,0.68,0.55,0.76,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 119, CLE 126	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.48,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.47,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.84,0.67,0.72,0.46,0.53,0.63,0.9,0.96,1	90.1%
NJN 85, HOU 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.83,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.74,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.78,0.96,1	89.4%
BOS 104, CHI 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.66,0.74,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.9,0.95,1	89.4%