NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	9.2 [115]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +35.7%
Atlanta Hawks	108		Comeback	2.1 [544]		LVP	Andre Iguodala (DEN): -45.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.36	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.51,0.51,0.36	0.21	0.15	0.00	16	89%	0.54	4	-0.18	4	75%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.00	15	58%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	60%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	8	65%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	57%	0.09	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Randolph	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	10	53%	-0.00	1	-0.01	10	100%	0.10
Kenneth Faried	-0.27	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.27,-0.27	-0.09	-0.17	-0.00	8	28%	-0.23	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.46	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.37,-0.53,-0.46	-0.21	-0.25	-0.01	10	24%	-0.14	7	-0.32	1	0%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.12	-0.03	20	61%	0.31	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.16	0.16	-0.00	0.16	-0.00	13	50%	0.22	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.12
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.07	-0.04	15	44%	0.18	2	-0.09	6	67%	-0.05
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	55%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.06	-0.15	0.01	6	100%	0.10	3	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	16	28%	-0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.6	31.2	16.6	31.9	1.8	32.5	141.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +23.2%

ATL +7.4%

DEN -3.9%

ATL +15.6%

ATL +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ATL	NBA	DEN	ATL	NBA
this game	14.1	15.6	15.4	108.3	110.2	104.1
season	14.4	15.1		108.4	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.4		102.8	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.1	13.6	16.0	15.2	14.1
ATL	14.6	14.6	16.0	17.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenneth Faried	48	49	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.11	7	-11	18	14.6	13.6	0.94	17.4	13.7	3.69
JaVale McGee	47	47	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-4	4	13.5	14.7	-1.14	16.1	15.1	1.09
Jordan Hamilton	11	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	0	-4	11.5	14.4	-2.88	10.8	16.2	-5.37
Andre Miller	34	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-2	0	13.7	14.3	-0.65	16.2	15.2	1.06
Anthony Randolph	15	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	2	-8	11.9	14.5	-2.64	12.5	16.2	-3.68
Ty Lawson	72	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-8	12	14.9	11.8	3.07	16.2	13.6	2.61
Danilo Gallinari	67	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-5	6	13.9	14.5	-0.56	15.5	15.8	-0.35
Timofey Mozgov	55	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	0	-4	15.2	12.7	2.51	15.1	16.3	-1.26
Andre Iguodala	76	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-3	2	14.4	12.8	1.57	15.6	15.3	0.29
Corey Brewer	55	54	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.18	-15	11	-26	13.2	15.2	-2.01	14.6	16.8	-2.29

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Louis Williams	60	58	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.34	17	-13	30	15.5	15.7	-0.25	14.4	13.6	0.81
Devin Harris	65	65	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	-1	6	15.2	16.3	-1.09	14.4	13.4	1.04
DeShawn Stevenson	68	66	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.43	2	2	0	15.0	16.9	-1.95	14.7	12.9	1.78
Al Horford	85	84	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	4	-4	15.7	14.9	0.76	14.4	11.9	2.49
Zaza Pachulia	46	45	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.04	8	-4	12	16.5	14.7	1.81	13.8	14.4	-0.64
Ivan Johnson	31	31	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	-2	8	16.0	15.4	0.66	13.2	14.5	-1.33
Josh Smith	61	59	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.34	-7	11	-18	15.8	15.2	0.59	14.0	14.2	-0.24
Anthony Morrow	15	15	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.08	7	-3	10	11.7	16.3	-4.62	11.5	14.6	-3.11
Jeff Teague	59	57	-0.47	0.97	-1.45	0.06	-18	22	-40	16.4	14.3	2.07	13.8	14.5	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.83,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.86,0.84,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 84, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.55,0.68,0.58,1	91.4%
MIA 98, BOS 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.71,0.8,0.84,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.43,0.83,1	91.2%
SAS 93, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.76,0.63,0.45,0.74,1	90.9%