NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	9.3 [104]		MVP	Anthony Davis (NOH): +41.5%
New Orleans Hornets	95		Comeback	4.2 [426]		LVP	Greivis Vasquez (NOH): -26.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,0.08,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.25	0.07	0.20	0.02	19	52%	0.25	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,0.17,0.22	0.05	0.18	0.01	15	69%	0.43	5	-0.21	5	80%	0.04
Kawhi Leonard	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.10	0.00	13	63%	0.23	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Tiago Splitter	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	5	58%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Green	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.05	-0.00	11	41%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Gary Neal	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	18%	-0.04	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Patty Mills	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	0	50%	0.01	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Boris Diaw	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.08	0.01	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.42,0.42	0.42	0.12	0.31	0.02	12	64%	0.42	0	0.00	9	100%	0.15
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	6	86%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.00	7	57%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Roberts	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	10	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Darius Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	16	50%	0.06	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	10	40%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	9	29%	-0.05	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.27	-0.27	-0.03	-0.24	-0.00	8	50%	-0.21	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	26.5	15.4	31.4	2.5	29.5	131.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +78.8%

NOH -18.7%

SAS +4.9%

NOH -19.5%

SAS +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOH	NBA	SAS	NOH	NBA
this game	14.4	15.3	15.4	103.1	96.9	104.1
season	15.2	16.3		106.4	103.9
opponent	15.6	15.1		108.1	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.1	15.1	11.4	16.1	14.4
NOH	16.2	13.7	15.7	15.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	62	60	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.38	13	-9	22	14.1	14.8	-0.62	15.4	15.2	0.26
Kawhi Leonard	67	68	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.37	12	-8	20	14.5	14.1	0.32	15.9	14.0	1.85
Tim Duncan	68	70	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.29	13	-9	22	14.5	13.9	0.62	15.1	15.7	-0.61
Tony Parker	69	71	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.32	12	-8	20	14.7	13.6	1.02	15.6	14.5	1.10
Stephen Jackson	50	51	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.43	-4	8	-12	13.9	14.8	-0.93	15.3	15.4	-0.13
Gary Neal	36	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	7	-10	13.9	14.7	-0.81	14.7	15.7	-1.03
Patty Mills	14	13	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.01	-4	8	-12	13.7	14.5	-0.76	14.4	15.5	-1.07
Danny Green	67	69	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	8	-12	14.4	14.3	0.03	14.9	16.3	-1.46
Matt Bonner	17	20	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	10	-16	15.0	14.2	0.77	14.7	15.5	-0.77
Tiago Splitter	30	31	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.03	-9	13	-22	14.8	14.2	0.63	16.2	14.9	1.28

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Miller	29	28	0.45	-0.95	1.40	0.01	15	-19	34	14.4	15.7	-1.28	14.8	14.2	0.64
Ryan Anderson	58	57	0.33	-0.83	1.15	-0.14	16	-20	36	14.6	16.4	-1.83	14.9	13.6	1.22
Jason Smith	35	32	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.04	12	-16	28	15.3	15.3	-0.00	14.3	14.4	-0.03
Brian Roberts	1	0	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-1	-2	0.0	15.5	-15.47	0.0	14.4	-14.36
Austin Rivers	51	51	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-2	0	15.5	15.1	0.49	13.3	15.6	-2.24
Roger Mason Jr.	55	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.39	-1	-3	2	15.8	14.7	1.14	14.3	14.5	-0.22
Greivis Vasquez	74	74	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.39	-5	1	-6	15.4	15.1	0.31	14.8	12.8	2.01
Robin Lopez	52	52	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.17	-15	11	-26	15.6	15.0	0.60	14.5	14.2	0.34
Al-Farouq Aminu	75	74	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.33	-17	13	-30	15.3	15.3	-0.04	14.7	13.3	1.36
Anthony Davis	60	59	-1.03	0.53	-1.55	-0.44	-20	16	-36	15.7	14.6	1.12	13.6	15.6	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.39,0.35,0.23,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.5,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.64,0.46,0.33,0.45,0.63,0.68,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, NYK 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.4,0.34,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.27,0	90.0%
CLE 86, TOR 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.45,0.71,0.68,0.73,0	89.5%
ORL 109, LAL 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.29,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.22,0.55,0.58,0	89.2%