NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	98		Excitement	8.6 [157]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +45.6%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	2.9 [207]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -20.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,0,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.46,0.46	0.06	0.39	-0.00	15	56%	0.48	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.07
Caron Butler	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.06	-0.04	9	57%	0.15	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	80%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	70%	0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.02	-0.08	0.06	-0.00	7	39%	0.12	3	-0.14	4	75%	0.04
Jose Juan Barea	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.21	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.22,-0.21	0.04	-0.22	0.03	21	50%	-0.21	0	0.00	10	100%	0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.02	15	54%	0.10	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.04
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.07	0.07	-0.07	0.12	-0.03	17	46%	0.17	5	-0.09	7	71%	-0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	7	67%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.03	0.04	17	55%	0.08	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	-0.00	10	54%	0.06	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.05
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.7	30.2	16.7	24.1	0.8	41.9	138.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +33.0%

DAL +5.3%

DAL +13.8%

MIA -3.7%

DAL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	16.9	15.5	107.7	107.9	105.7
season	15.7	16.0		108.5	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.3	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.3	16.4	15.6	14.5	15.1
MIA	15.1	19.6	18.7	14.9	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	71	71	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.25	16	-14	30	15.8	12.6	3.15	16.9	17.0	-0.11
Tyson Chandler	59	57	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	-4	10	15.2	15.0	0.17	16.9	16.9	0.01
Jason Kidd	75	72	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.41	-1	3	-4	14.5	18.1	-3.66	16.9	17.1	-0.26
Shawn Marion	56	56	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.58	-8	10	-18	14.3	16.4	-2.10	15.9	18.6	-2.74
DeShawn Stevenson	28	28	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.16	16	-14	30	15.9	14.7	1.18	16.9	16.9	0.03
Jason Terry	59	57	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.56	-11	13	-24	14.6	16.0	-1.42	16.9	16.9	-0.04
Brendan Haywood	32	32	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.20	-4	6	-10	15.0	15.2	-0.17	16.9	16.9	-0.01
Jose Juan Barea	20	21	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	2	-2	17.8	14.3	3.51	17.1	16.9	0.24
Caron Butler	55	51	-0.07	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	6	-10	15.0	15.2	-0.19	18.1	15.4	2.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	24	24	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.11	11	-13	24	17.7	16.6	1.15	13.0	15.9	-2.87
Mike Miller	6	6	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.05	5	-7	12	23.2	16.5	6.71	15.0	15.1	-0.12
James Jones	37	38	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.23	8	-10	18	16.4	17.2	-0.82	12.5	17.0	-4.48
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	33	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.16	-10	8	-18	17.2	16.7	0.53	15.9	14.6	1.33
Carlos Arroyo	34	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	5	-12	16.9	16.9	0.00	15.5	14.9	0.61
Joel Anthony	51	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.44	6	-8	14	17.5	16.2	1.31	15.7	14.3	1.36
Dwyane Wade	72	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-7	12	16.7	17.8	-1.13	15.7	12.6	3.10
Mario Chalmers	55	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.51	5	-7	12	16.9	16.9	-0.00	14.9	15.5	-0.61
Chris Bosh	65	67	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.33	-13	11	-24	16.6	17.7	-1.15	15.9	13.0	2.87
LeBron James	68	70	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.27	-20	18	-38	16.3	19.0	-2.74	15.1	15.2	-0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.39,0.3,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.73,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.25,0.28,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 100, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.04,0	91.2%
CHH 102, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.24,0.16,0	91.0%
HOU 112, MIN 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.06,0.16,0	90.8%