NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	80		Excitement	7.9 [280]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +20.8%
Sacramento Kings	85		Comeback	1.2 [1008]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): -31.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.1,0.21	0.01	0.19	-0.01	15	42%	0.21	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	17	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.06	-0.02	25	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Josh Powell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Howard	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.12	-0.20	0.00	16	38%	-0.17	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.21	0.21	0.04	0.18	0.01	8	56%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	15	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.04
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.10	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	9	70%	0.08	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	14	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	16	39%	-0.05	3	-0.08	6	33%	-0.11
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	13	30%	-0.09	1	-0.05	4	25%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	25.9	15.7	23.7	2.4	37.3	131.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +59.2%

DAL -17.8%

SAC +10.7%

DAL -3.1%

SAC +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	16.4	15.6	90.9	95.5	104.4
season	16.4	15.3		109.0	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.8	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.9	15.4	18.1	16.3	16.1
SAC	15.8	15.9	16.1	18.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	20	18	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-7	9	17.3	15.8	1.57	19.2	15.7	3.53
Josh Howard	25	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-7	9	13.6	17.2	-3.60	17.4	16.0	1.39
Josh Powell	20	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-3	1	18.5	15.4	3.06	16.7	16.3	0.34
DeSagana Diop	47	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.17	0	-5	5	15.3	17.1	-1.75	18.7	13.9	4.82
Erick Dampier	41	42	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	0	-5	17.1	15.3	1.75	13.9	18.7	-4.82
Jason Terry	72	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-5	5	16.6	14.1	2.53	16.1	17.7	-1.64
Dirk Nowitzki	78	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-1	-3	15.8	18.8	-3.01	16.7	14.3	2.37
Jerry Stackhouse	61	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.35	-7	2	-9	15.8	17.0	-1.25	15.3	18.9	-3.57
Marquis Daniels	76	76	-0.58	0.09	-0.67	-0.26	-11	6	-17	16.3	15.3	0.93	16.2	17.5	-1.33

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	80	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-4	13	16.8	13.0	3.79	16.1	16.7	-0.63
Bonzi Wells	52	51	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.29	7	-2	9	16.6	16.2	0.37	16.2	16.1	0.10
Kevin Martin	61	61	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	-6	17	16.0	17.3	-1.29	17.0	14.1	2.98
Metta World Peace	81	80	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.38	1	4	-3	16.7	13.9	2.78	15.8	19.1	-3.29
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	37	36	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.10	7	-2	9	15.7	16.9	-1.15	17.5	15.2	2.31
Mike Bibby	73	72	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.28	-4	9	-13	16.4	16.6	-0.27	15.7	18.2	-2.58
Kenny Thomas	61	59	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.29	-6	11	-17	16.3	16.6	-0.30	15.4	17.7	-2.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 82, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.77,0.83,0.65,0.6,0.8,0.85,0.77,0.91,1	93.4%
WAS 97, DAL 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.72,1	93.2%
DET 96, NJN 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.75,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.87,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.96,1	93.2%