NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	136		Excitement	16.0 [1]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +61.8%
Golden State Warriors	134		Comeback	12.3 [57]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -20.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.44	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.22,-0.17,-0.07,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.38,0.42,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.44	0.04	0.41	0.02	28	56%	0.58	3	-0.14	6	67%	-0.09
Robert Horry	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.00	0.14	-0.00	10	68%	0.28	4	-0.14	5	60%	-0.07
Bruce Bowen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.08	0.15	-0.07	0.01	10	85%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.05	-0.07	0.11	-0.01	13	37%	0.05	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Brent Barry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	13	53%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	17	44%	0.00	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.01
Mike Wilks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linton Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Massenburg	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.00	-0.08	-0.00	4	64%	0.02	1	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.22,0.59,0.59,0.75,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.72,0.72,0.62	0.62	0.00	0.60	-0.01	29	54%	0.68	3	-0.07	12	67%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.00	0.12	-0.00	12	53%	0.15	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.04
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	7	61%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	2	150%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	73%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.05	-0.10	0.01	13	56%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	16	41%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29,-0.29,-0.2	-0.20	-0.03	-0.17	0.00	20	50%	-0.12	2	-0.08	6	50%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	27.5	15.6	28.2	2.3	33.6	2.6	21.4	2.5	19.1	179.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	1.9	17.4	1.9	17.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +11.4%

SAS +4.6%

SAS +52.7%

GSW -11.2%

GSW -7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	17.4	13.4	15.5	120.4	118.6	104.0
season	16.3	15.0		105.8	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.6		104.7	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	15.8	21.4	16.4	16.2	15.2	17.1
GSW	13.7	11.9	12.4	13.8	14.8	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	83	82	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.48	9	-7	16	16.3	20.5	-4.19	14.0	12.0	1.98
Robert Horry	70	69	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.59	5	-3	8	18.0	16.4	1.60	13.7	12.9	0.85
Bruce Bowen	79	78	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	1	0	16.8	18.8	-2.05	13.6	12.9	0.76
Glenn Robinson	39	40	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.48	-1	3	-4	19.1	16.5	2.66	12.9	13.7	-0.78
Tony Parker	90	91	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	0	2	17.2	18.0	-0.82	13.8	11.6	2.26
Nazr Mohammed	68	68	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.11	3	-1	4	16.8	18.3	-1.46	13.6	13.1	0.45
Linton Johnson	15	17	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	0	2	20.3	16.9	3.32	13.9	13.3	0.56
Beno Udrih	23	22	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	2	-2	18.0	17.2	0.82	11.6	13.8	-2.26
Sean Marks	41	43	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.05	0	2	-2	17.2	17.5	-0.34	13.0	13.6	-0.62
Mike Wilks	14	13	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.04	-7	9	-16	20.6	16.9	3.63	10.2	13.8	-3.59
Tony Massenburg	43	42	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.25	-4	6	-10	17.2	17.5	-0.33	12.7	13.8	-1.06

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	81	81	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.12	5	-7	12	13.3	13.6	-0.22	16.7	19.2	-2.51
Mickael Pietrus	36	37	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-5	8	13.2	13.5	-0.35	19.5	16.4	3.12
Zarko Cabarkapa	24	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	1	-4	12.5	13.7	-1.15	18.1	17.2	0.93
Andris Biedrins	14	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	0	-2	11.9	13.6	-1.69	17.9	17.3	0.63
Troy Murphy	68	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-2	2	13.4	13.4	-0.03	17.4	17.4	0.05
Baron Davis	97	97	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	0	-2	13.9	10.4	3.53	17.3	17.7	-0.42
Jason Richardson	88	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	1	-4	13.4	13.5	-0.14	16.6	20.1	-3.51
Derek Fisher	68	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.53	1	-3	4	13.7	13.0	0.64	18.3	16.1	2.20
Mike Dunleavy	89	90	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.43	-9	7	-16	13.3	13.7	-0.33	17.0	18.8	-1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.57,0.61,0.71,0.8,0.72,0.82,0.77,0.71,0.81,0.91,0.9,0.8,0.63,0.66,0.76,0.9,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.22,0.09,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.55,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 97, MIL 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.74,0.89,0.83,0.61,0.72,0.86,0.73,1	87.0%
MEM 115, GSW 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.87,0.89,0.87,0.8,0.72,0.57,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.57,0.57,0.18,0.5,0.61,0.45,0.22,0.27,0	86.9%
LAL 125, DET 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.78,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.72,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.05,0.17,0	86.9%