NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	97		Excitement	7.5 [367]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +6.6%
Memphis Grizzlies	99		Comeback	1.5 [927]		LVP	Lorenzen Wright (MEM): -28.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	9	80%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	10	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mickael Pietrus	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.02	13	65%	0.08	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	57%	0.00	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.17,-0.09	0.10	-0.18	0.01	20	69%	0.23	4	-0.32	2	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	8	33%	-0.14	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.04
Derek Fisher	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	0.00	8	24%	-0.15	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	10	79%	0.18	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.06
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.01	13	65%	0.17	6	-0.16	5	100%	0.03
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.07	-0.01	17	64%	0.08	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	3	67%	0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	67%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.17,-0.28	-0.28	-0.11	-0.15	0.02	8	41%	-0.22	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	31.0	16.7	24.5	2.5	32.3	132.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +12.6%

MEM +14.2%

MEM +15.1%

MEM +2.8%

MEM +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MEM	NBA	GSW	MEM	NBA
this game	13.6	16.1	15.5	100.0	102.1	104.0
season	15.0	16.4		102.3	103.7
opponent	15.5	15.2		101.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.0	12.2	14.3	13.9	13.6
MEM	15.3	15.0	15.7	18.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney White	23	23	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.03	3	-5	8	14.3	13.3	0.97	18.3	15.5	2.80
Mickael Pietrus	58	57	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.28	9	-11	20	13.3	13.9	-0.60	17.4	14.3	3.02
Zarko Cabarkapa	23	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	1	-4	13.1	13.7	-0.57	16.4	16.1	0.33
Baron Davis	44	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.41	8	-10	18	13.6	13.6	0.00	17.7	14.7	2.99
Adonal Foyle	44	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	2	-6	13.6	13.5	0.13	14.7	17.3	-2.60
Derek Fisher	79	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.33	-6	4	-10	13.3	14.7	-1.35	15.8	17.6	-1.81
Jason Richardson	74	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.48	-1	-1	0	13.9	12.3	1.60	16.3	15.6	0.69
Troy Murphy	72	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.31	-7	5	-12	13.3	14.4	-1.12	15.3	18.6	-3.27
Mike Dunleavy	68	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.33	-9	7	-16	13.8	13.0	0.81	15.2	18.3	-3.04

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Cardinal	80	80	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.32	11	-9	20	15.5	18.9	-3.34	13.9	12.2	1.69
Shane Battier	80	81	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.40	7	-5	12	15.6	18.8	-3.20	13.2	15.5	-2.31
Jason Williams	72	74	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.36	7	-5	12	15.7	17.2	-1.50	13.5	13.8	-0.34
Mike Miller	73	72	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.38	2	0	2	16.0	16.6	-0.61	13.6	13.6	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	69	69	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	-4	10	16.0	16.4	-0.43	13.6	13.5	0.04
James Posey	37	37	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.25	-3	5	-8	16.6	15.8	0.72	13.6	13.6	0.00
Bonzi Wells	12	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.00	-2	4	-6	19.0	15.7	3.28	13.9	13.5	0.40
Ryan Humphrey	23	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.11	-6	8	-14	17.0	15.8	1.21	13.7	13.5	0.15
Earl Watson	39	38	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.16	-12	14	-26	17.8	15.0	2.88	13.7	13.5	0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.86,0.71,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 107, WAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.87,0.74,0.82,0.92,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.88,0.86,0.78,0.91,0.73,1	93.7%
MIL 107, NYK 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.81,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.78,0.86,0.71,0.94,0.99,1	93.6%
ATL 92, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.99,1,1	93.4%