NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	101		Excitement	11.4 [19]		MVP	Christian Laettner (WAS): +11.9%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	3.1 [652]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -51.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.12	0.04	0.04	-0.04	11	55%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.05	0.02	18	52%	0.08	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Steve Blake	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.04	-0.10	0.03	14	61%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	8	52%	-0.12	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.10
Kwame Brown	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	-0.03	4	-0.11	6	67%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.51	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.33,-0.33,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.51	-0.15	-0.35	0.01	24	49%	-0.25	8	-0.27	7	71%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.15	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.07	0.01	12	42%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	22	51%	0.03	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.01
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.12	-0.03	8	30%	-0.15	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.06,0.13,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.10	0.01	23	49%	-0.05	4	-0.14	7	57%	-0.10
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.41	-0.41	-0.12	-0.28	0.00	10	32%	-0.29	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.1	2.0	26.0	14.0	31.6	1.7	43.0	1.8	12.4	155.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	2.0	17.4	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +4.9%

WAS -8.7%

MIA +62.4%

WAS -11.4%

MIA +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.0	15.7	97.1	98.1	100.5
season	15.2	16.2		96.4	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.8	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
WAS	16.0	15.0	17.3	13.4	13.3	15.2
MIA	16.0	16.3	14.0	14.2	14.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	75	79	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.18	7	-11	18	14.8	16.1	-1.35	15.1	14.6	0.51
Jarvis Hayes	82	84	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.31	7	-11	18	14.7	16.8	-2.04	15.2	14.2	0.97
Kwame Brown	61	63	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-2	0	16.2	13.7	2.42	16.4	13.0	3.44
Larry Hughes	78	80	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-9	14	14.7	16.5	-1.78	14.9	15.1	-0.17
Steve Blake	17	16	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	4	-12	16.7	14.9	1.84	15.5	14.9	0.61
Juan Dixon	15	18	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	0	-4	16.0	15.0	0.98	12.3	15.5	-3.25
Gilbert Arenas	98	101	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-6	8	15.1	15.8	-0.71	15.3	10.2	5.10
Jared Jeffries	28	28	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.09	-13	9	-22	16.7	14.6	2.07	13.9	15.4	-1.43
Etan Thomas	66	66	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.43	-14	10	-24	14.6	16.2	-1.65	13.9	16.8	-2.88

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	60	61	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.46	16	-12	28	14.3	15.9	-1.63	15.8	14.3	1.43
Lamar Odom	94	93	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	-1	6	14.8	16.5	-1.68	15.2	14.5	0.69
Eddie Jones	89	84	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	6	-8	14.8	16.1	-1.36	14.9	16.3	-1.47
Rafer Alston	38	37	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	-2	8	14.8	15.1	-0.22	15.6	14.9	0.71
John Wallace	25	23	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.11	5	-1	6	15.7	14.8	0.96	15.0	15.2	-0.15
Dwyane Wade	69	67	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.28	-2	6	-8	15.1	14.8	0.22	14.9	15.6	-0.71
Brian Grant	85	82	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	7	-10	15.3	13.9	1.35	14.7	16.8	-2.10
Loren Woods	40	39	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	4	-4	14.7	15.1	-0.41	14.9	15.3	-0.47
Udonis Haslem	35	34	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	-0.23	-5	9	-14	16.4	14.3	2.15	16.1	14.7	1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.95,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.67,0.53,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 110, CHH 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.87,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.81,0.72,0.85,0.84,0.46,0.69,0.84,0.83,1,1	89.4%
MIL 116, ORL 121	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.84,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.96,1	89.3%
LAL 111, MIA 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.83,1	88.6%