NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	7.7 [278]		MVP	Dana Barros (DET): +27.5%
Detroit Pistons	98		Comeback	3.2 [432]		LVP	Joe Smith (DET): -25.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.01	15	62%	0.18	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.01	0.09	0.00	10	71%	0.20	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	19	57%	0.10	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Mark Pope	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	9	39%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Scott Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	15	41%	-0.08	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.16	-0.00	15	73%	0.33	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	11	65%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	4	50%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	5	50%	-0.07	1	-0.03	8	37%	-0.07
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	-0.00	18	47%	-0.05	3	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.02	-0.23	0.01	10	54%	-0.19	1	-0.07	8	62%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.0	29.2	15.5	23.4	2.4	31.6	127.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +4.0%

MIL +3.8%

MIL +13.6%

MIL +28.8%

DET -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	15.5	15.1	15.5	108.5	104.3	100.9
season	14.9	14.3		105.9	97.9
opponent	15.4	15.8		99.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.6	15.5	14.3	16.9	15.5
DET	15.1	15.2	16.4	13.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glenn Robinson	77	77	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.46	18	-14	32	15.4	16.2	-0.85	15.5	13.2	2.27
Ray Allen	74	75	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	3	-2	14.9	17.8	-2.87	15.6	13.1	2.56
Sam Cassell	69	69	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	1	2	15.3	16.3	-1.00	14.6	16.4	-1.78
Tim Thomas	59	58	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	1	2	16.1	14.7	1.37	14.4	16.2	-1.78
Jason Caffey	41	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	4	-4	16.9	14.5	2.46	14.6	15.5	-0.82
Mark Pope	30	31	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.01	3	1	2	14.1	16.2	-2.17	16.2	14.6	1.64
Scott Williams	46	45	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	4	-4	14.4	16.6	-2.17	16.0	14.3	1.65
Lindsey Hunter	47	47	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.05	-1	5	-6	16.3	14.8	1.47	14.9	15.3	-0.45
Ervin Johnson	27	26	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.10	-7	11	-18	17.4	14.8	2.56	13.5	15.7	-2.21

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikki Moore	44	44	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.03	5	-9	14	14.6	15.6	-0.99	16.8	14.4	2.40
Billy Owens	29	30	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.01	5	-9	14	13.5	15.8	-2.33	15.8	15.4	0.33
Jud Buechler	6	6	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-4	4	11.2	15.4	-4.20	18.3	15.4	2.98
Mateen Cleaves	22	21	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-2	0	15.3	15.0	0.29	14.4	15.9	-1.43
John Wallace	32	30	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	4	-12	13.3	16.0	-2.66	15.4	15.6	-0.16
Michael Curry	63	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.45	4	-8	12	15.8	13.6	2.16	15.4	15.8	-0.40
Dana Barros	73	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.35	-4	0	-4	15.2	14.9	0.25	15.9	14.4	1.45
Chucky Atkins	85	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-2	0	15.4	12.6	2.81	15.1	19.4	-4.32
Joe Smith	49	48	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.41	-7	3	-10	15.6	14.5	1.12	14.7	16.4	-1.70
Ben Wallace	67	66	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.37	-11	7	-18	15.8	13.4	2.42	15.7	15.3	0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.61,0.68,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.12,0.22,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 95, POR 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.53,0.27,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.03,0	92.7%
MEM 110, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.71,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.21,0.09,0.02,0	91.8%
DET 81, MIL 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.07,0.08,0	91.6%